Introduction

For a more streamlined reading experience, this article is broken down into multiple parts so that you can have a better understanding of this ever-changing situation. The second section of this article is the background on the crisis, while the third section of that article is what students and faculty think of the crisis here at TBS. Finally, the fourth section is a conclusion which wraps up the article.

Background on the Crisis

Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union on December 26th of 1991, Russia has always wanted the former member states reincorporated into Russia. Recently, Russia has been taking action upon its dreams of reincorporation with its member states, specifically Ukraine. 

Russia has amassed more than 100,000 soldiers on the Ukrainian border. Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser for the United States, warned that the current president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, could launch a major assault on Ukraine before the conclusion of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, but said that the United States does not know whether Putin has yet to make a final decision to invade or not. 

So far, a diplomatic response has achieved nothing and has not prompted Russia to back off the border. The reason behind Russia’s troop buildup in Belarus and on the Ukrainian border is due to Ukraine’s desire to join NATO. Russia believes that the West is planning to encircle and destroy Russia, and Ukraine, being so close to Russia, makes Russia feel uneasy about Ukraine joining NATO, or the North American Treaty Organization. 

Russian-backed Ukrainian separatists have controlled Crimea, which is not occupied by Russia but is not recognized by the international community as Russian territory. This means that Ukraine is surrounded on 3 of the 4 sides of the country. Ukraine is surrounded on the North by Russian forces in Belarus, the East by Russian forces in Russia, and the South by Russian forces in Crimea. 

In the event of Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it is likely the US would not directly intervene, and has stated that it does not plan to directly defend Ukraine, however, the US has been sending troops to Poland and sending munitions, anti-tank weapons, and small arms to Ukraine. The US has told Ukraine to fight a guerrilla war, instead of a conventional one. The US has no military operation planned to rescue citizens in the event of war and urges all US citizens to leave the country as soon as possible, preferably between the next 24-48 hours. 

The global consequences of allowing Ukraine to fall back into Russian hands are severe. Ukraine being reincorporated into Russia would mean that Russia grows in landmass and power. Russia would be more emboldened and inclined by the West’s inaction to recapture other former member states, such as Kazakhstan, the Baltic States, and Belarus. Russia could threaten more of Europe, and its sphere of influence would spread rapidly after the capture of Ukraine. 

Not to forget the consequences for the Ukrainian people, which would now be thrown into a brutal war where they have little hope of winning, against a foe far larger and militarily superior. A large war would displace millions of civilians and trigger a European refugee crisis for multiple bordering countries and would trigger fear among other civilians in other member states or bordering nations, possibly prompting an even larger refugee crisis. A Russian invasion of Ukraine would trigger major consequences that would affect not only Europe but Asia and North America as well. 

Pulse Check at TBS on the Crisis

I inquired about Mr. Hagy’s thoughts on this new crisis. When speaking to Mr. Hagy, one of the things he brought up was the economic impact on the global economy but specifically on Russia. Hagy believes the repercussions could be dampened for us here in the West, “I think if NATO works together, the repercussions could be dampened for us in the west but could be catastrophic for Russia, particularly the cutting of the oil pipeline between Russia and Germany, coupled with economic sanctions could really further isolate the Russian people, and it could be very severe,” said Hagy. 

It is important to recognize some of the less recognized factors, such as European stability. The repercussions could be grave for European stability in the case of war with Russia, “I believe it would truly destabilize Europe and create a cold waresce scenario,” said Hagy.

Bella Blount believes that we here in America would be affected due to our prominent place on the world stage. “Although always knowing of this lingering turmoil, the actual idea of this conflict being turned into a reality, makes you realize what it actually means. This is because if there is an even larger conflict, which is likely, it would most definitely affect us being how prominent America is in the international world,” said Blount.

Conclusion

Due to the recent developments of the crisis, it is more likely that war will break out. On February 21st, 2022, Russia recognized the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in the Donbas Region of Ukraine as independent states after their appeal for Russian president Vladimir Putin to recognize their independence claims. Later that day, Russian troops crossed the Ukrainian border on a ‘peacekeeping mission.’ The news on this crisis continues to develop by the day, but it isn’t unlikely that war could break out in Ukraine. All Americans are encouraged to leave as soon as possible, for Putin can launch an invasion at any second. For us here in America and more locally, here at TBS, all we can do is be prepared for the imminent possibility of a major cross-continental conflict.